1,346annual booking slots at P90
29weekly slots at P90
70.2%overflow risk at 24 slots/week
Capacity is a distribution
Simulate a future cohort of 15 new learners across 48 teaching weeks. Each learner may buy one additional package, with renewal probabilities of 35%, 50% and 65%. For each contracted lesson, assume a 12% chance that rescheduling requires one extra booking slot. These are planning assumptions.
Base scenario · annual overflow risk
24 slots/week
70.20%
28 slots/week
10.52%
32 slots/week
0.02%
Choose a capacity buffer
| Renewal assumption | Median annual slots | P90 annual slots | P90 weekly slots | Overflow at 24/week | Overflow at 28/week | Overflow at 32/week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 1,079 | 1,224 | 26 | 24.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| 50% | 1,218 | 1,346 | 29 | 70.2% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| 65% | 1,338 | 1,455 | 31 | 95.7% | 45.1% | 1.5% |
At 50% assumed renewal, plan around 29 slots per week to reach the modeled 90th percentile. At 65%, the equivalent threshold is 31. Annual totals can still hide weekly peaks.
Validate before operational use
The simulator uses a fixed seed and cross-checks the simulated mean against the analytical expectation. Estimate actual renewal timing and reschedule rates from package and booking histories before committing to a staffing plan.